North American promo distributors grew sales 3.4% year over year in the third quarter, according to ASI's quarterly sales survey, the fifth consecutive quarter of gains. Firms with more than $5 million in revenue led at 6.4%, midsize shops were flat, and those under $250,000 slipped 1.8%.
ASI cautions that part of the increase likely reflects higher prices, with U.S. consumer prices up 3.7% year over year in September. Its Counselor Confidence Index improved to 91 but is still below the 100 baseline last seen at the end of 2024.
Tariffs remain the top concern: 83% of respondents said they were at least a little concerned about further increases, and 54% said they don't qualify for IEEPA tariff refunds because they don't import directly. Higher energy and shipping costs tied to the Iran conflict are also stretching lead times on offshore goods, and ASI researchers called Q4 a make-or-break quarter.
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